Pollinating Prices: Estimating the Relationship between Honeybee Population and Almond Prices

This paper examines the potential effect of decreasing honeybee population on crop prices by estimating the relationship between honeybee population and the price of almonds over time. As a declining honeybee population becomes an increasingly salient issue, the public must be aware of the potential impacts that honeybee population loss can have on society, including rising crop prices. Understanding the economic impact that honeybee loss can have on consumers and industry is critical to limiting the severity of that impact over time. Using data on honeybee population and almond prices from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, we conduct both an ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variable regression of almond prices using honeybee population. Our approach also includes controls for weather, almond yield and crop area, and transportation costs. Results are analyzed at the 95 percent confidence level. Our OLS regression presents a positive, significant relationship between honeybee population and almond prices, while our instrumental variable regressions are insignificant. The confidence of our findings is constrained by a small sample size, which suggests that further research is necessary to achieve more robust findings.